Chris Clegg
NPHL.com Writer
NPHL West Division Semi-Final
Fort St. John Flyers [3] vs Grande Prairie Athletics [2]
[Best-of-seven]
The Fort St. John Flyers begin defence of their NPHL title. As a last place team, FSJ tries to become the first team in NPHL history to place last in a division and win the title. Read all you need to know about the series.
Series Schedule
Game 1 – Tue., Feb. 5 – Fort St. John at Grande Prairie
Game 2 – Thu., Feb. 7 – Grande Prairie at Fort St. John
Game 3 – Sat., Feb. 9 – Fort St. John at Grande Prairie
Game 4 – Tue., Feb. 12 – Grande Prairie at Fort St. John
*Game 5 – Thu., Feb. 14 – Fort St. John at Grande Prairie
*Game 6 – Fri., Feb. 15 – Grande Prairie at Fort St. John
*Game 7 – Tue., Feb. 19 – Fort St. John at Grande Prairie
* if necessary
The Season Series – 2018-19
1. Sat., Oct. 27 – Grande Prairie 5 at Fort St. John 6
2. Sat., Nov. 3 – Fort St. John 2 at Grande Prairie 7
3. Fri., Nov. 30 – Grande Prairie 4 at Fort St. John 5
4. Sat., Dec. 8 – Fort St. John 0 at Grande Prairie 3
5. Thu., Jan. 10 – Grande Prairie 6 at Fort St. John 3
6. Thu., Jan. 31 – Fort St. John 4 at Grande Prairie 5
GP won four of the six games this season including all three at home by scores of 7-2, 3-0 and 5-4. Overall, GP outscored FSJ 30-20. Three of the games were decided by one goal
Analysis: This series is about as even as it gets. GP has been the most consistent team of the two all season while FSJ has come on at the end. Still, GP won the last three meetings and four of six overall this season, albeit the last game in GP had FSJ shorthanded.
FSJ’s PP is ranked third and GP’s is fourth but FSJ has over 5% better percentage. They are virtually even in PK with FSJ ranking fourth and GP fifth, but separated by just over 1%.
GP has the edge in shots on goal ranking third at +141 shots for the season to FSJ’s +25 to rank fifth. However, GP averages almost seven more shots per game while FSJ gives up just under one shot more per game.
This series could be decided on penalties. FSJ is the second least penalized team in the league while GP is the second most penalized. FSJ takes over 11 PIMs less per game. Overall, FSJ is +153 PIMs for the season compared to GP’s -67 PIMs. FSJ’s better PP may be the key. FSJ also takes the least PIMs in stick fouls in the league [2.25 PIM per game] while GP takes the most [4.60 PIMs per game].
FSJ scored first in 50% of its games this season, GP 60%.
Want evenly matched teams? Both teams sport similar percentages in the following categories: GP is 10-2 and FSJ 8-2 when scoring first; GP is 3-5 and FSJ 3-7 when allowing the first goal; GP is 10-0 when leading after one period while FSJ is 9-1 with the only loss coming the season finale at the Swan City; GP is 11-2 and FSJ 10-0 when leading after two periods; and both teams are winless when trailing after two periods, GP is 0-5 and FSJ 0-7.
GP has a slight advantage with a 3-4 record when trailing after one period while FSJ only had one come from behind win when trailing after one period, they were 1-6.
Both teams outscored their opposition in each period this season but the teams had different stats. FSJ started strong scoring +10 goals in the first period and +16 goals in the second, but tapered off to only +4 in the third. It was the opposite for GP, who were +5 goals in the first, +14 in the second and a blazing hot +33 in the third so they got stronger as the game progressed.
GP had a better percentage in come from behind wins at 25% to 15%, but FSJ only blew leads in 15% of its games compared to GP’s 20%.
Prediction: This is as even as it gets. Either team can win. You have the defending champs, while GP presents a formidable challenge. FSJ are the defending champs and have bolstered their lineup late in the season. I think home ice is key in this series, I believe both teams will have trouble winning on the road. GP’s penalty troubles also concern me. If GP takes less PIMs in the series, they win. I do not think that will happen. FSJ to win in six.
Fort St. John Flyers – Grande Prairie Athletics Playoff History
The teams meet for only the fourth time in playoff history. GP won the first series in 2005-06 while FSJ won the NPHL Final in six games in 2008-09, plus the NPHL Semi-Final Round-Robin involving GP and DC in 2017-18. An odd stat here is that FSJ is 3-3 in six home playoff games vs GP. FSJ lost the first three at home vs GP and then won the last three. FSJ is also 5-2 in seven away playoff games at GP, and FSJ has won four straight playoff games in GP outscoring them 28-12.
Team SP SW SL GP GW GL GF GAFort St. John 3 2 1 13 8 5 65 52
Grande Prairie 3 1 2 13 5 8 52 65
TOTALS 3 3 3 13 13 13 117 117Legend:
SP – series played; SW – series won;
SL – series lost; GP – games played;
GW – games won; GL – games lost;
GF – goals for; GA – goals against.The Stats Pack
[Ranking in Parenthesis]Category Fort St. John Grande Prairie
Record 11-9-0-0 [3-West] 13-4-3-0 [2-West]
Power Play 28-96, 29.17% [3] 22-92, 23.91% [4]
Penalty Kill 18-75, 76.00% [4] 29-115, 74.78% [5]
Shots For 37.85 per game [5] 44.80 per game [2]
Shots Vs 36.60 [2] 37.75 per game [4]
Shots For/Against +25 [5] +141 [3]
PIM For 16.70 per game [2] 28.15 per game [6]
PIM Vs 24.35 per game [4] 24.80 per game [5]
PIM For/Against +153 [1] -67 [5]
Scoring 1st 50.00% [T3] 60.00% [2]
Record Scoring 1st Goal 8-2 [3] 10-2 [2]
Record Allow 1st Goal 3-7 [4] 3-5 [3]
Lead After 1 Period 9-1 [3] 10-0 [1]
Trail After 1 Period 1-6 [6] 3-4 [1]
Lead After 2 Periods 10-0 [2] 11-2 [6]
Trail After 2 Periods 0-7 [T5] 0-5 [4]
Goals Scored in 1st 1.80 per game [T3] 1.65 per game [6]
Goals Scored in 2nd 1.80 per game [4] 1.85 per game [3]
Goals Scored in 3rd 2.05 per game [2] 2.65 per game [1]
Goals Allowed in 1st 1.30 per game [T1] 1.40 per game [3]
Goals Allowed in 2nd 1.00 per game [1] 1.15 per game [3]
Goals Allowed in 3rd 1.85 per game [3] 1.00 per game [1]
Goal Diff in 1 +10 [T2] +5 [4]
Goal Diff in 2 +16 [3] +14 [4]
Goal Diff in 3 +4 [T3] +33 [1]
Come From Behind Wins 15.00% [6] 25.00% [T3]
Blown Leads 15.00% [2] 20.00% [3]
Team Stick Fouls 2.25 PIM/Game [1] 4.60 PIM/Game [7]