Chris Clegg
NPHL.com Writer
Manning at Grimshaw [Fri., Feb. 1]
LINE: Grimshaw by 1 1/2
GRIM leads MAN by one point in the race for second place and home ice advantage in their upcoming playoff series.
GRIM clinches second with a win only in regulation time, MAN also clinches second with a win in regulation time, overtime or a shootout.
If GRIM wins in overtime or a shootout, MAN can still clinch second with a win at HP on Saturday when GRIM is idle [this is GRIM’S last game]. Both teams would end the season with 23 points but MAN would win the tiebreaker based on total wins [11-10].
GRIM has won three of five games this season including 5-1 and 10-3 wins at home. Overall, GRIM has outscored MAN 33-18.
GRIM dominates in the stats categories while MAN has its ace in the hole; goaltender Braden Gamble.
GRIM’s special teams are a huge advantage. GRIM’s PP and PK ranks second in the NPHL while MAN’s PP is sixth and PK is last. GRIM’s PP is over 10% better than MAN’s and its PK is over 11% better. It is important because MAN is the most penalized team in the NPHL, GRIM is fourth most penalized.
MAN is last in both shots on goal for and shots on goal against. Their shots on goal for and against is a horrible -347 in 20 games – that’s over 15 shots per game. GRIM isn’t much better ranking fourth in shots on goal for and fifth against, but their overall rank is fourth and at +38 shots. Combine the two and GRIM has a 385 shots advantage.
MAN and GRIM do not have stellar records when scoring first. MAN is a mediocre 6-4 and GRIM 6-5. But leading after one period MAN ranks fourth with a 4-1 win percentage, GRIM is fifth at 7-2.
Both teams are perfect when leading after two periods: MAN is 8-0 and GRIM is 7-0, but each team struggles when trailing after two periods: MAN is 2-11 and GRIM 1-13.
GRIM and MAN rank fifth to seventh in all goal scoring and defensive categories by period, except GRIM is ranked second in goals scored in the first period.
Both teams have been outscored in every period this season: MAN is -21 in the third and -23 in the first while GRIM is -8 in the third and -15 in the second but a respectable -1 in the first.
MAN has a penchant for coming back to win games. MAN is ranked third at 27.27% while GRIM is ranked second to last in blowing leads in 30.43% of its games.
GRIM blasted MAN last week 10-3 and also won at MAN 10-3 on Jan. 10. Both games MAN were shorthanded and this is expected to not be the case this weekend with second place on the line. Big difference.
It’s hard to think MAN could win when looking at the stats, but MAN is a much better team when their out-of-town players arrive. They also have Gamble.
Meanwhile, GRIM excels and beats you on special teams play. The live and die for PPs and kill you.
GRIM to win and cover. They clinch second.
NOTE: David Temple, former NPHL linesman and avid NPHL fan, sets the lines, which are set on the Sunday previous for the games from Jan. 22-25.
THURSDAY’S RECORD STRAIGHT-UP: 2-0
THURSDAY’S RECORD AGAINST THE LINE: 2-0
SEASON RECORD STRAIGHT-UP: 49-26
SEASON RECORD AGAINST THE LINE: 42-33
The Season Series
1. Fri., Nov. 2 – Manning 1 at Grimshaw 5
2. Fri., Dec. 7 – Grimshaw 3 at Manning 5
3. Fri., Dec. 21 – Grimshaw 5 at Manning 6
4. Thu., Jan. 10 – Grimshaw 10 at Manning 3
5. Thu., Jan. 24 – Manning 3 at Grimshaw 10
6. Fri., Feb. 1 – Manning at Grimshaw
The Stats Pack
[Ranking in Parenthesis]
[Stats as of Sunday, Jan. 27]
Category Manning GrimshawRecord 10-12-0-0 [3-East] 9-11-3-0 [2-East]
Power Play 21-104, 20.19% [6] 37-118, 31.36% [2]
Penalty Kill 34-103, 66.99% [7] 20-92, 78.26% [2]
Shots For 30.86 per game [7] 40.48 per game [4]
Shots Vs 46.64 per game [7] 38.83 per game [5]
Shots For/Against -347 [7] +38 [4]
PIM For 31.91 per game [7] 24.52 per game [4]
PIM Vs 31.00 per game [7] 26.22 per game [6]
PIM For/Against -20 [5] +39 [T2]
Scoring 1st 45.45% [T4] 47.83% [3]
Record Scoring 1st Goal 6-4 [T4] 6-5 [6]
Record Allow 1st Goal 4-8 [3] 3-9 [6]
Lead After 1 Period 4-1 [4] 7-2 [5]
Trail After 1 Period 5-8 [1] 1-10 [6]
Lead After 2 Periods 8-0 [3] 7-0 [4]
Trail After 2 Periods 2-11 [6] 1-13 [4]
Goals Scored in 1st 0.95 per game [7] 1.96 per game [2]
Goals Scored in 2nd 1.32 per game [6] 1.57 per game [5]
Goals Scored in 3rd 1.36 per game [T6] 1.87 per game [5]
Goals Allowed in 1st 2.00 per game [T5] 2.00 per game [T5]
Goals Allowed in 2nd 1.64 per game [5] 2.22 per game [6]
Goals Allowed in 3rd 2.32 per game [T6] 2.22 per game [5]
Goal Diff in 1 -23 [7] -1 [5]
Goal Diff in 2 -7 [5] -15 [6]
Goal Diff in 3 -21 [6] -8[5]
Come From Behind Wins 27.27% [3] 17.39% [5]
Blown Leads 22.73% [4] 30.43% [6]
Team Stick Fouls 4.23 PIM/Game [5] 3.30 PIM/Game [3]