Falher at High Prairie Preview [Thu. Jan. 24]

Chris Clegg
NPHL.com Writer

Falher at High Prairie [Thu., Jan. 24]
LINE: Falher by 3 1/2

FAL needs a combination of two wins and/or MAN losses to place first. Each team has four games left. If FAL wins tonight, and MAN loses at GRIM, it’s over. HP is locked into fourth place. Barring a minor miracle, FAL and HP will face each other in the playoffs; as will MAN and GRIM.
This is the fourth of six meetings this season; the teams play at FAL Jan. 31 to conclude the season series. FAL has won at home 6-5 and 12-3 and in HP 10-4 and 7-4.

FAL’s PP and PK rank right in the middle of the league – fourth. HP’s PP and PK units are ranked last. Each are about 5 percentage points worse than FAL’s.
FAL is ranked third in shots on goal for per game and fourth against. HP is ranked sixth in each. The big difference, however, is when you combine the two. FAL is ranked third at +87 shots but HP is ranked sixth at -163 shots. Only MAN is worse.
The rankings are similar in terms of penalties. FAL is the third most penalized team while HP is fifth. FAL has the third most penalties assessed against them, HP second. But combine the two, and FAL is +6 PIM for the season while HP is -148 PIM.
Both teams have scored first in 45% of their games. FAL’s record is 5-4 while HP’s is well below the even mark at 1-8.
FAL and HP actually have better records when scored upon first. FAL is 7-4 while HP is 2-9.
FAL is 7-4 when leading after one period and HP 2-5. Leading after two periods, FAL is 11-2 and HP 2-1.
Getting behind after 20 and 40 minutes is a big problem for each team. FAL is 2-3 when trailing after one period and 0-6 when trailing after two. HP is worse: they are 0-10 when trailing after one period and 0-16 when trailing after two.
FAL has scored more goals in the first and second period than any team in the NPHL. As a result, their goals for and against rank first overall in the first period [+17] and second in the second period [+21].
HP is ranked fifth in the first period and last in the second.
Slow starts hamper HP. They rank last in goals for and against in the second period [-43] and third period [-17].
Getting behind does not bother FAL. They have won 40% of their games when trailing at any part of the game.
Conversely getting the lead is not the problem for HP, it is keeping it. HP has blown leads in 45% of their games, a league worst.
After a nine-game winning streak, FAL has hit the skids losing four straight and they have been outscored 23-9. HP has lost two straight. All of HP’s wins this season have come vs GRIM; they have not defeated any other team in the NPHL.
FAL scores and scores a lot vs HP. FAL has outscored HP 35-16 this season in the four wins. I think FAL gets back on track. They are all but assured first place but there is still the Lawrence Cup to play for. FAL trails DC by three points but has four games left; DC three. With the two teams heading for a playoff matchup, surely FAL will not want to give HP any confidence. FAL to win and cover.

NOTE: David Temple, former NPHL linesman and avid NPHL fan, sets the lines, which are set on the Sunday previous for the games from Jan. 22-25.


The Season Series

1. Thu., Nov. 15 – Falher 10 at High Prairie 4
2. Thu., Dec. 6 – High Prairie 5 at Falher 6
3. Thu., Dec. 13 – Falher 7 at High Prairie 4
4. Thu., Dec. 20– High Prairie 3 at Falher 12
5. Thu., Jan. 24 – Falher at High Prairie
6. Thu., Jan. 31 – High Prairie at Falher

The Stats Pack
[Ranking in Parenthesis]
[Stats as of Sunday, Jan. 20]

Category			Falher			High Prairie

Record 12-7-0-1 [1-East] 3-14-2-1 [4-East]
Power Play 25-108, 23.15% [4] 14-74, 18.92% [7]
Penalty Kill 29-113, 74.34% [4] 31-102, 69.61% [7]
Shots For 42.50 per game [3] 35.90 per game [6]
Shots Vs 38.15 per game [4] 44.05 per game [6]
Shots Diff +87 [3] -163 [6]
PIM For 24.80 per game [3] 26.90 per game [5]
PIM Vs 25.10 per game [3] 19.50 per game [2]
PIM Diff +6 [4] -148 [7]
Scoring 1st 45.00% [T4] 45.00% [T4]
Record Scoring 1st Goal 5-4 [5] 1-8 [7]
Record Allow 1st Goal 7-4 [1] 2-9 [7]
Lead After 1 Period 7-4 [6] 2-5 [7]
Trail After 1 Period 2-3 [T2] 0-10 [7]
Lead After 2 Periods 11-2 [6] 2-1 [7]
Trail After 2 Periods 0-6 [T5] 0-16 [7]
Goals Scored in 1st 2.25 per game [1] 1.75 per game [5]
Goals Scored in 2nd 2.30 per game [1] 1.15 per game [7]
Goals Scored in 3rd 1.75 per game [4] 1.45 per game [T6]
Goals Allowed in 1st 1.40 per game [3] 2.40 per game [7]
Goals Allowed in 2nd 1.25 per game [4] 3.40 per game [7]
Goals Allowed in 3rd 2.00 per game [T3] 2.30 per game [7]
Goal Diff in 1 +17 [1] -13 [6]
Goal Diff in 2 +21 [2] -43 [7]
Goal Diff in 3 -5 [4] -17 [7]
Come From Behind Wins 40.00% [1] 15.00% [T6]
Blown Leads 25.00% [T4] 45.00% [7]
Team Stick Fouls 5.10 PIM/Game [7] 3.45 PIM/Game [4]