Dawson Creek at Fort St. John [Wed., Jan. 30]
LINE: Dawson Creek by 1 1/2
It’s the sixth and final meeting of the season between the BC rivals. DC would love nothing more than to wrap up their third Lawrence Cup title in team history with a win over their arch-rivals. FSJ, of course, would like to postpone the party. DC also clinches the Lawrence Cup title with a loss in overtime or a shootout. If DC loses, and FAL wins in regulation time at DC on Saturday, FAL wins the Lawrence Cup.
DC has clinched first in the West while FSJ is locked into third.
DC has won four of the first five games this season including 9-7 and 5-2 wins in FSJ. FSJ’s only win came in DC 7-4 while DC won 7-2 and 5-4.
These teams dominate the NPHL statistics, especially DC.
DC ranks first in many major categories including power play percentage, penalty kill percentage, shots on goal for per game and shots on goal allowed per game. Their top ranking in shots for and against is an impressive +227 shots, FSJ’s is ranked fifth at +36.
FSJ’s PP is ranked third but almost 10% behind DC. FSJ’s PK is ranked fifth.
FSJ allows the second fewest shots on goal per game and only two shots more per game than DC.
Do not expect many penalties. DC is also the least penalized team in the NPHL while FSJ is the second least penalized. Just for good measure, FSJ takes the least PIMs in stick fouls while DC is second least.
FSJ is ranked fourth in PIMs against, mostly due to the one game in HP, or they would be top two or three.
Still, despite all the PIM stats, the most important one is in FSJ’s favour. They rank first in total PIMs for and against with +159 while DC is tied for second but with a distant stat of +39 PIMs.
DC ranks first in scoring first in 66.67% of its games, while FSJ is near the bottom, ranking sixth at 44.44%.
Don’t fall behind these teams. Both teams have impressive stats when scoring first or leading after the first and second periods. DC is 12-0 when scoring first; FSJ is 7-1. When leading after one period, both teams are a perfect 8-0 to rank second. When leading after two periods DC is 13-0; FSJ is 9-0.
DC is 3-3 when allowing the first goal to rank second: FSJ is 3-7 to rank fourth.
Like all teams in the NPHL, DC and FSJ struggle when trailing after the first and second periods. DC is 1-3 when trailing after one; FSJ is 1-6. DC is 2-2 when trailing after two periods, FSJ is winless at 0-6.
Both teams rank first, second or third in goals scored and goals allowed in the all three periods, except FSJ’s fourth overall ranking in goals allowed in the first period.
DC has proven it came come back from deficits. The have won 33.33% of its game when trailing to rank second; FSJ is ranked sixth with only 16.67%.
Getting a lead is pretty safe for either team. DC has not blown a single lead all season to lose a game while FSJ ranks second, at only 11.11%.
There is so much conflicting date here when making a pick. For whatever reason, DC plays FSJ better on the road than at home. DC has won both games in FSJ this season, four of the last six, and six of the last 10.
DC has proven all season it is the NPHL’s best team. The stats prove it. However, FSJ are the defending champs and they are on home ice.
I rely on two things while picking games. When in doubt, go with the home team, which means FSJ to win. Or, rely on the stats, which means DC to win. Sheesh! Add to this the fact that FSJ is playing better and may be primed to defend this title.
Let’s take the chicken’s way out. FSJ to win and take the goals, but DC to wrap up the Lawrence Cup with an overtime loss. FSJ wins 5-4 or 6-5 in OT.
NOTE: David Temple, former NPHL linesman and avid NPHL fan, sets the lines, which are set on the Sunday previous for the games from Jan. 22-25.
LAST WEEK’S RECORD STRAIGHT-UP: 4-3
LAST WEEK’S RECORD AGAINST THE LINE: 3-4
SEASON RECORD STRAIGHT-UP: 46-26
SEASON RECORD AGAINST THE LINE: 39-33
The Season Series
1. Fri., Nov. 16 – Dawson Creek 9 at Fort St. John 7
2. Thu., Dec. 13 – Fort St. John 7 at Dawson Creek 4
3. Thu., Dec. 20 – Dawson Creek 5 at Fort St. John 1
4. Sat., Dec. 22 – Fort St. John 2 at Dawson Creek 7
5. Tue., Jan. 15 – Fort St. John 4 at Dawson Creek 5
6. Wed., Jan. 30 – Dawson Creek at Fort St. John
The Stats Pack
[Ranking in Parenthesis]
Category Fort St. John Dawson Creek
Record 10-8-0-0 [3-West] 15-3-9-0 [1-West]
Power Play 23-87, 26.44%  27-75, 36.00% 
Penalty Kill 17-69, 75.36%  12-66, 81.82% 
Shots For 38.56 per game  46.72 per game 
Shots Vs 36.56  34.11 per game 
Shots For/Against +36  +227 
PIM For 16.06 per game  13.33 per game 
PIM Vs 24.89 per game  15.50 per game 
PIM For/Agasint +159  +39 [T2]
Scoring 1st 44.44%  66.67% 
Record Scoring 1st Goal 7-1  12-0 
Record Allow 1st Goal 3-7  3-3 
Lead After 1 Period 8-0 [T2] 8-0 [T2]
Trail After 1 Period 1-6  1-3 
Lead After 2 Periods 9-0  13-0 
Trail After 2 Periods 0-6 [T5] 2-2 
Goals Scored in 1st 1.78 per game [T3] 1.78 per game [T3]
Goals Scored in 2nd 1.89 per game  2.17 per game 
Goals Scored in 3rd 2.11 per game  2.00 per game [T3]
Goals Allowed in 1st 1.44 per game  1.28 per game 
Goals Allowed in 2nd 0.94 per game  1.06 per game 
Goals Allowed in 3rd 1.94 per game  1.06 per game 
Goal Diff in 1 +6  +9 
Goal Diff in 2 +17  +20 
Goal Diff in 3 +3  +17 
Come From Behind Wins 16.67%  33.33% 
Blown Leads 11.11%  0% 
Team Stick Fouls 2.28 PIM/Game  2.78 PIM/Game